The protective tariff Safeguard (SGD) in the Indian market expired at the end of July last year. Although there are rumors in the market that there may be new tariffs to fill the tariff gap, the Indian government has spent a period of time due to the delay in taking action. blank period. As the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) tariff is about to go live in April, 25 percent of the cell tariff and 40 percent of the module tariff will be levied. PV Infolink has also updated the module cost calculation table in India.
As can be seen from the above table, during the period of no tariffs from August 2021 to March 2022, China's modules have a profit point of about 9.6 percent , while China's battery imports are close to zero profit, so it seems that A large number of Chinese components are imported into the Indian market; compared with the imposition of BCD basic tariffs, under the condition of high tax rates, the products imported from China no longer have cost advantages, whether it is batteries or components, and it is expected that the local Indian market will not be able to reduce costs at the same time. The component rally will be further brewed. From the perspective of these three scenarios, after the start of the BCD levy, components manufactured locally in India will continue to actively expand their production capacity with cost advantages. In recent years, the market share may continue to grow, which is in line with the support of the Indian authorities. The policy direction of the domestic photovoltaic industry.
US market
On February 4, US President Biden issued a new executive order, extending the 201 protective tariffs that originally expired on February 6, and continuing to impose 201 tariffs on imported photovoltaic modules and batteries. Regardless of whether the tariff amount or the exemption amount for battery cells has been adjusted, the tax amount has been revised from the final 15 percent tariff to 14.75 percent in this issue of 2022/2/7-2023/2/6 , and down 0.25 percent year-on-year, expiring on February 6, 2026, while bifacial modules are still exempt from 201 tariffs.
Compared with the version first launched on January 23, 2018, the annual decline reached 5 percent . This time the decline has slowed down significantly. It is expected that the United States still wants to maintain the current situation and continue to protect and support the domestic photovoltaic industry. As for the duty-free quota for battery cells, this time it was increased from 2.5GW to 5GW, which echoes the fact that the US exhausted the 2.5GW duty-free quota for cells from February to the end of December last year. It can expand the production of local photovoltaic modules.
PV Infolink updated the module cost calculation table under the 201 tariff change. Overall, since bifacial modules are still exempt from tax, the 201 tax change has little impact on the overall market. Southeast Asian bifacial modules are still imported into the United States. The local profit point is still good. Compared with Chinese modules, after the layers of tariffs are stacked, there is almost no profit margin and no original cost advantage. As for the US-based module factories, they still retain the advantage of no tariffs, but the variables of setting up factories are large and there are still few at present. See that the manufacturer has related plans and actions. In the future, it is expected that the proportion of Southeast Asian modules will continue to grow in the United States. The expansion of the duty-free allowance for cells this time will undoubtedly reassure the local module manufacturers in the United States and promote the willingness of local module manufacturers to expand production.
Summarize
The U.S. and India are the only PV markets above 10GW after China. The U.S. market is expected to add 31GW of demand this year, while the Indian market is expected to have a demand of 10GW. A similar situation can be seen from the policy trends of the above-mentioned two countries: as China's market share continues to expand and the global photovoltaic market is flooded, the local photovoltaic manufacturing industries in the United States and India continue to be impacted, and the governments of these two countries have also successively introduced Relevant policies and tariffs to protect the development of local manufacturing industries.
However, while blocking the import of products from other countries to protect the local market, it is also necessary to consider whether its own production capacity can match the local demand. In the future, PVInfolink will continue to pay attention to the market and give timely updates and comments.